Trading Expectancy Calculator

How to calculate trading expectancy

Convert the win rate and loss rate to decimals. Multiply each rate by its average result, subtract the expected loss from the expected win, then subtract cost per trade.

Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss) − cost per trade

Worked example in R

Take 100 comparable closed trades with a 45% win rate, a 1.8R average win, a 1R average loss, and 0.05R of cost per trade.

1. Expected win: 0.45 × 1.8R = 0.81R.
2. Expected loss and cost: (0.55 × 1R) + 0.05R = 0.60R.
3. Expectancy: 0.81R − 0.60R = 0.21R per trade. Across 100 trades, projected expectancy is 21R.

Which trades belong in the sample?

Use closed trades from one defined strategy or setup. For this calculator, count breakeven trades with the non-winning trades and include their 0R results when calculating average loss. Keep costs in the separate cost field and apply the same classification each time you update the sample.

A positive result means the sample's average wins outweighed its average losses and assigned costs. It does not guarantee that future trades will produce the same result. Update the inputs when the sample changes and compare the estimate with the expectancy calculated from your recorded trade history.

Before using journal figures here, check the account, strategy, dates, cost treatment, and breakeven classification. A journal may calculate average loss from losing trades only; this calculator needs the average across all non-winning trades, including zeros. Save the sample definition and inputs in a journal note so you can reproduce the result.