Win Rate Calculator

How win rate is calculated

Breakeven trades have no vote, so:

Win rate = winning trades ÷ (winning trades + losing trades)

Where the 95% range comes from

As of 26 October 2026, the NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods gives the Wilson interval, introduced by Wilson in 1927, as its method for a confidence interval for a proportion. The calculator applies it at 95% to your winning trades out of your decided trades. It assumes each trade is an independent draw at one stable win rate. When trades come in clusters, or your market or strategy changes, the real uncertainty is larger than the range shows.

The Kelly criterion calculator also shows the Kelly figure at a win rate one standard error below yours. That margin is narrower than this 95% range, so for most samples its lower win rate sits closer to yours than the low end here.

Worked example: 44 trades with a 1.4 payoff

The calculator starts with a hypothetical sample: 22 winning trades, 18 losing trades, 4 breakeven trades, an average win of 210 USD and an average loss of 150 USD.

1. Win rate: 22 ÷ (22 + 18) = 55%. Counting the 4 breakevens as trades: 22 ÷ 44 = 50%.
2. 95% range from 40 decided trades: 39.8% to 69.3%.
3. Payoff ratio: 210 ÷ 150 = 1.4. Breakeven win rate: 150 ÷ (210 + 150) = 41.7%. The range starts below it, so these 40 trades cannot yet tell a 55% win rate apart from breakeven.
4. If the win rate stayed at exactly 55%, about 53 decided trades would lift the low end above 41.7%. With 80 decided trades, 44 wins and 36 losses, the range is 44.1% to 65.4%.

Which win rate to compare with breakeven

Compare the breakeven win rate with the win rate that leaves breakeven trades out, and take both averages from the same winning and losing trades. Breakeven trades can still carry small gains, losses and fees, so the comparison is approximate. If your payoff ratio changes, the breakeven win rate changes with it.

What the calculator leaves out

The calculator takes the counts and averages as you enter them. It does not know which trades you counted as breakeven, whether the averages include fees, or whether older trades still reflect how you trade now. A range above breakeven describes the trades you entered. It is not evidence of an edge in the trades to come, and it does not tell you what size to take.

In Tradeways, win rate is calculated the same way from your trades: winners against winners plus losers. A breakeven threshold, in currency or percent, decides which small results count as breakeven, and those trades still count in total P&L and expectancy. A win rate goal takes a minimum trade count and shows N/A until enough closed trades exist.