Your equity curve shows the sequence that happened. Monte Carlo analysis runs many credible sequences from the same trading record, so the range of final results, drawdowns, and losing streaks becomes visible.
Run the demoSimulation from past trades, not a forecast
Sample record120 trades in R-multiples
What happened
+18.7R across 120 trades, with a 9.7R maximum drawdown.
Same trades, reordered
Order alone takes the drawdown to 18.2R at the 95th percentile. The total never moves. 72 of 2,000 reorderings drawn.
Same distribution, 80 trades ahead
The middle 90 percent of simulated paths end between -8.7R and +35.1R. 120 of 2,000 projections drawn.
Two different questions
Separate the edge from the order it arrived in.
Both modes read the same filtered trades. They differ in what they hold fixed, and the shape of the result tells you which one you are looking at.
Opens with the horizon
Projection
What could this record still produce?
Draw trades from the historical record with replacement. This estimates the range the same trade distribution could produce over the next chosen number of trades.
Closes on the same total
Reshuffle
Was that drawdown normal for this record?
Reorder the actual filtered trades without changing any result. Every path ends at the same total, while the drawdowns and losing streaks reveal how much sequence changed the experience.
Interactive model
Change the record. Watch the range move.
Set a simple sample strategy below. The demo builds a fixed 180-trade record and passes it to the same bounded simulation engine used inside Tradeways. The product uses your imported trades and live filters instead of these assumptions.
Reading the chart
Four readings from one figure.
A fan chart is not a forecast and not a single number. Each marker on the diagram is one thing worth reading, in the order they matter.
Projection over 120 trades from the sample record, with the record's own curve drawn inside the simulated range.
1
Median line
Median
The 50th percentile. Half the simulated runs finished above it and half below.
2
Band width
5th to 95th
The distance between the 5th and 95th percentile at one point in time. Wider means the same edge produces more scattered outcomes.
3
Your realized curve
Realized
The sequence that actually happened, drawn in ink over the simulated range so you can see where it sits inside it.
4
Lower tail
Lower tail
The worst simulated paths. Read it before the median, because it sets the drawdown a position size has to survive.